Russia will be bankrupt in May
Russia will most likely pay off dollar bonds in rubles. Moody’s assesses that this can be considered a default.
Such a move is inconsistent with the terms of the agreement. If the situation does not change before the end of the grace period, that is, before May 4, Russia will be considered insolvent. If the country goes bankrupt, it will be difficult for investors to get their money back. That’s because Russia’s debt crisis is rooted more in politics than finance. As a last resort, the U.S. can seize the frozen assets of the Russian Central Bank. A similar solution was used in the case of Afghanistan. The Americans could divide the frozen assets of the Central Bank between Ukraine and the bondholders.